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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Southern Methodist

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:219.0
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:235
Current SOS:235
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:335


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17219.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Methodist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola Marymount (211.0)WCCH73-58W100%0.0
11-15Texas Christian (238.0)B12A61-64W100%0.0
11-17Texas St. (272.0)WACA75-78W100%0.0
11-21Rider (145.0)MAACH83-70W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBN56-69L0%0.0
11-25Missouri St. (203.0)MVCN62-61W100%0.0
11-28Utah (161.0)P12H62-55W100%0.0
12-1Hofstra (325.0)CAAA47-73W100%0.0
12-15Rhode Island (201.0)A10A72-50L0%0.0
12-18Utah (161.0)P12A62-53L0%0.0
12-21Wagner (126.0)NECN63-53L0%0.0
12-22Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACN67-52W100%0.0
12-30Furman (343.0)SCH72-53W100%0.0
1-2Wyoming (75.0)MWCH56-59L0%0.0
1-6Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH47-48L0%0.0
1-9Houston (197.0)CUSAA78-67L0%0.0
1-12Tulane (175.0)CUSAH59-53W100%0.0
1-16Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH70-74L0%0.0
1-19Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA63-54L0%0.0
1-26Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA74-65L0%0.0
1-30Marshall (208.0)CUSAA57-68W100%0.0
2-2Houston (197.0)CUSAH80-84L0%0.0
2-6Memphis (12.0)CUSAH52-60L0%0.0
2-9Rice (324.0)CUSAA39-61W100%0.0
2-16Tulane (175.0)CUSAA78-67L0%0.0
2-23East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH69-72L0%0.0
2-27Rice (324.0)CUSAH67-55W100%0.0
3-2UAB (144.0)CUSAA74-69L0%0.0
3-6Tulsa (127.0)CUSAA65-71W100%0.0
3-9Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAH63-76L0%0.0
3-13UAB (144.0)CUSAN53-52L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Methodist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Methodist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Methodist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern MethodistCUSA26.1826.1845.1645.16-2.53-2.53
TulsaCUSA3.963.9651.7251.720.140.14
HoustonCUSA3.963.9657.1457.140.570.57
Texas El PasoCUSA3.913.9153.3353.330.260.26
TulaneCUSA3.913.9156.6756.670.520.52
RiceCUSA3.903.9014.8114.81-2.75-2.75
UABCUSA3.813.8143.3343.33-0.51-0.51
UtahP123.253.2541.3841.38-0.56-0.56
MemphisCUSA2.322.3287.8887.881.761.76
Southern MississippiCUSA2.322.3270.9770.970.970.97
MarshallCUSA2.272.2740.0040.00-0.45-0.45
East CarolinaCUSA2.232.2352.0052.000.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA2.192.1960.7160.710.470.47
Texas ChristianB121.821.8233.3333.33-0.61-0.61
HofstraCAA1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
Texas St.WAC1.691.6934.3834.38-0.53-0.53
Arkansas Little RockSB1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC1.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
WagnerNEC1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Loyola MarymountWCC1.641.6432.2632.26-0.58-0.58
Alcorn St.SWAC1.611.6129.0329.03-0.68-0.68
FurmanSC1.611.6117.8617.86-1.04-1.04
Rhode IslandA101.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
RiderMAAC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
WyomingMWC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2369.7069.700.090.09
OregonP120.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Oral RobertsSlnd0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
ArizonaP120.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Chicago St.GWC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Long IslandNEC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
TexasB120.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
CreightonMVC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
SouthernSWAC0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
DrexelCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
GramblingSWAC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
StanfordP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
DenverWAC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
DrakeMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.WAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
TroySB0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
NC GreensboroSC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.7593.750.070.07
PortlandWCC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DavidsonSC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
ElonSC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
New Orleansind0.060.0618.1818.18-0.04-0.04
South FloridaBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01